However, it is the insurgency that arose after the Civil War that laid the foundation for the violent movement we face today, with the Confederate battle flag itself flying in the US Capitol. While no two insurgencies are identical-and progression through the stages is not linear-understanding indicators that an insurgency may be forming, and where in its lifecycle an insurgency currently is, are instructive in developing an effective solution.Īmerica has faced insurgencies in the past, and, indeed, the United States itself was the product of an insurgency. The CIA Guide to Analysis of Insurgencies and the Department of Defense’s Joint Publication on Counterinsurgency identify the four primary stages of an insurgency: pre-insurgency or pre-conflict incipient open insurgency or open conflict and resolution. Trump’s supporters unified around the “stolen” election lies, despite their differences
WHAT IS INSURGENCY FULL
leaders must take immediate action to prioritize and mitigate this threat, making full use of existing tools and authorities. Left unaddressed, this movement could become a full-fledged insurgency that poses a significant and enduring threat to Americans.
leaders must take immediate action to mitigate this threat. Politicians and government officials across the political spectrum must not underestimate the threat that this movement may continue to pose going forward. While these groups united around Trump, they also have shared racial grievances that will continue to unite them even after Trump leaves office. This movement, united by Trump, brings together conservatives, Christian nationalists, Nazi sympathizers, white supremacists, and ultranationalist groups such as the Proud Boys. law defines insurrection as “a violent uprising by a group or movement acting for the specific purpose of overthrowing the constituted government and seizing its powers.” Those who stormed the Capitol clearly intended to overthrow the democratically elected incoming government, and there are even early reports that some of the offenders were seeking to capture, and even possibly execute, Vice President Mike Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and other lawmakers in Congress.Īlthough the attack failed to prevent Congress from certifying the election results, there are troubling indicators, such as a shared grievance, a strong group identity, and recruitment and training, that America could be in the early days of a violent political movement that will endure after President Donald Trump leaves office. This was violence with a political goal in mind: Preventing the lawful certification of presidential election results to disrupt the peaceful transition of power. Instead, it was a deliberately planned attack.
The assault, which took place while Congress was convened to certify the election-and which left at least five people dead-was not a protest gone awry. leaders, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have rightly deemed the Trump-incited storming of the Capitol building as an insurrection that is inconsistent with the rule of law.
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